Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.737085 3.755656 5.209376 7.511190 1.121475e+01 1.723173e+01 28.429524
2025-02-16 1.828173 2.898674 4.753854 8.480186 1.659449e+01 3.597305e+01 97.368268
2025-02-23 1.214962 2.140538 3.999272 8.539452 2.156138e+01 6.807577e+01 362.620142
2025-03-02 0.821994 1.569226 3.254299 8.105564 2.604055e+01 1.243935e+02 1798.012520
2025-03-09 0.634895 1.315935 3.051946 9.065559 3.954232e+01 3.564886e+02 71965.867919
2025-03-16 0.496773 1.103953 2.826541 9.915944 5.981777e+01 1.283607e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.405030 0.960994 2.710357 11.308137 1.000086e+02 9.273086e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.333229 0.836613 2.572904 12.661497 1.699317e+02 2.884520e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.262768 0.683630 2.223694 12.245216 2.264485e+02 7.654016e+08 NaN
2025-04-13 0.207337 0.553501 1.876433 11.259615 2.724675e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.177064 0.491176 1.773115 12.185051 4.747134e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.158201 0.458829 1.785030 14.543797 1.156766e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.142298 0.432831 1.828571 18.191531 4.265666e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.123953 0.389758 1.746689 20.221249 1.439119e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.104727 0.335417 1.554003 19.663082 3.262431e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.087785 0.284167 1.342446 17.915344 5.492482e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.078587 0.261458 1.299351 20.006501 6.626848e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.070342 0.239590 1.244480 21.829935 1.452920e+08 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.064165 0.224390 1.225908 25.131153 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.058520 0.209434 1.196850 28.379869 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.051560 0.185952 1.078902 26.911130 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.045130 0.163134 0.950790 24.078952 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.041504 0.152643 0.920771 26.246085 NaN NaN NaN